• New Report: China to be Short on Softwoods but Heavy on Hardwood Supplies

    22nd February 2024

    According to this new report, China Forest, Log & Lumber Report: Supply, Demand & Prices to 2030/2035, China will again be a growth market for softwoods – especially for lumber. The Chinese hardwood pulp sector will also see substantial growth with significant feedstock sourcing implications and opportunities. The report contains novel analysis not seen before and some of the findings are not what the project team were expecting! When compared to more traditional (often dated) analysis heavy on statistics and lacking grounded outlooks, this is a timely must-have report

  • Joint Research Report – China Forest, Log & Lumber Report: Supply, Demand & Prices to 2030/2035

    2nd December 2023

    The China wood products market is becoming complex! A slowdown is one thing, but there are some new and evolving fibre supply dynamics that will be played out in China over the next few years and beyond that should be game changers. We are predicting what happens when China’s demand starts to normalize and/or accelerate again as well as incorporating some significant supply-side dynamics and changes. All of these factors could lead to some very favourable prices for softwood log and lumber exporters, and especially hardwood woodchips.

    To provide the wood products trade with a better read and perspective on what’s next for China’s forests, market and import requirements, Russ Taylor Global (Canada) and Margules Groome (New Zealand & Australia) have teamed up to present a strategic analysis and outlook of China’s plantations, and log and lumber supply/demand/prices in: China Forest Log & Lumber Outlook: Supply, Demand & Prices to 2030/2035. We also have some expert contributors to our report.

  • Australian Plantation Area Decline from 2009 to 2022

    1st December 2023

    The above chart showing Australia’s plantation area since 1999 should be familiar to most people in the forest and wood products industries. Recent media coverage and opinion following the release of the latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Australian Plantation Statistics 2023 Update (August 2023) has focused on the decline in the national plantation estate from ~2.02 million ha in 2009, to ~1.72 million ha in 2022 – a 15% drop or ~300 000 ha removed.

  • Australian Softwood Residual Log Price Index – September 2023

    29th November 2023

    The latest edition of the index indicates margins have reversed and decreased in the September quarter of 2023. This is solely due to increases in logistics costs mainly caused by increasing fuel prices and wages, despite log prices remaining high. It is expected that log prices will start to come down from 2024 following timber prices after the latter rose ~40% during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. If logistics costs remain high, margins will continue to fall in the near future.

  • Australian Harvest & Haul Cost Index – September 2023

    29th November 2023

    Margules Groome’s quarterly harvest and haulage cost index for Australian plantation operations is based on price indexation mechanisms used by industry, weighted by volume harvested (Figure 1). The previous index for June 2023 showed the end of the harvest and haulage cost indices’ downwards trend evident in the first half of 2023. For the September quarter 2023 the indices rose mainly due to the deterioration in the value of the AUD leading to increased fuel prices. Higher than expected wage data and CPI didn’t help either. We now expect the indices to return to the level they were at 12 months ago (December quarter 2022) in the December quarter 2023.